Recent Publications
Taiwan Economic Research Monthly
Concerns in the era of high-interest rates
As we enter 2024, the first major issue facing the global economy is how long the "high-interest-rate" environment will persist. While data indicates a slowdown in inflationary pressures, it still falls short of the target range of around 2% set by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The current deceleration in the inflation rate is primarily due to the decline in energy prices. However, ongoing supply-side changes, such as global supply chain adjustments, geopolitical-driven supply chain restructuring, and the green transformation driven by "decarbonization," continue, and inflationary pressures have not been completely eliminated. Moreover, a deceleration in the annual growth rate does not necessarily mean an actual decline in price levels. Looking at the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, since the first half of 2021, it has accumulated a growth of 14.32%. In October 2023, the price index reached a new high of 121.34, making it challenging for consumers to perceive a slowdown in prices, and market confidence remains quite fragile. Fortunately for Taiwan, domestic inflationary pressures are not significant, and there is no need to simultaneously face the multiple challenges of high inflation, high interest rates, and economic recession. However, caution is still necessary regarding the impact of high-interest rates globally, ensuring the sound growth of the Taiwanese economy.