comparison of methods for detecting hot topics"
In scientometrics for trend analysis, parameter choices for observing
trends are often made ad hoc in past studies. For examples, different
year spans might be used to create the time sequence and different
indices were chosen for trend observation. However, the effectiveness
of these choices was hardly known, quantitatively and comparatively.
This work provides clues to better interpret the results when a certain
choice was made. Specifically, by sorting research topics in decreasing
order of interest predicted by a trend index and then by evaluating
this ordering based on information retrieval measures, we compare
a number of trend indices (percentage of increase vs. regression slope),
trend formulations (simple trend vs. eigen-trend), and options (various
year spans and durations for prediction) in different domains (safety
agriculture and information retrieval) with different collection scales
(72500 papers vs. 853 papers) to know which one leads to better trend
observation. Our results show that the slope of linear regression
on the time series performs constantly better than the others. More
interestingly, this index is robust under different conditions and
is hardly affected even when the collection was split into arbitrary
(e.g., only two) periods. Implications of these results are discussed.
Our work does not only provide a method to evaluate trend prediction
performance for scientometrics, but also provides insights and reflections
for past and future trend observation studies.
Asia-Pacific Perspectives" is an open forum and welcomes
the submission of analyses and commentaries on the Asia-Pacific region.
It is published four times a year by the Chinese Taipei Pacific Economic
Cooperation Committee. The periodical focuses on political, economic,
business and cultural matters. In this inaugural issue, the spotlight
is on various aspects of Asia-Pacific regional architecture.
Study on Korean and Taiwanese Investment Patterns in China" is
the most recent research paper produced by a joint project between
Samsung Economic Research Institute (SERI) and TIER. This paper
has discussed about Korean and Taiwanese firmsˇ¦ current investment
patterns in China, both countriesˇ¦ historical and present investment
cooperation with China, and how investment in China has influenced
Korea and Taiwanˇ¦s domestic economy. Taking changes in modern China
into account, this paper has also provided an insightful analysis
on opportunities for further cooperation between Korea and Taiwan.