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New Trump policies: heightened trade uncertainty and potential inflation pressures
AI continues to drive manufacturing growth, but expansion is stalled by global trade policy ambiguity |
Following President Trump's inauguration, his administration has frequently implemented new tariff measures. Recent plans include imposing reciprocal tariffs on all imported goods. U.S. agencies will review non-reciprocal trade relationships with all trading partners and adjust final tariff policies based on country responses and investigation findings. This action may increase tariffs on U.S. trading partners, exacerbate global economic uncertainty, and impact international trade and financial markets.
In the manufacturing sector, benefiting from continued momentum in AI and high-performance computing opportunities, supply chain relocations have driven exports of information and communication technology products, leading technology industry manufacturers to maintain positive outlooks for both current month and six-month future performance.However, the shortened work days due to the Lunar New Year holiday and synchronized weakness in major overseas markets have caused traditional industries to view current economic conditions slightly less favorably compared to the previous month's survey. Additionally, Trump's new tariff policies have elevated global trade uncertainty, prompting traditional industries to maintain neutral future six-month outlooks.The service sector benefited from Lunar New Year opportunities driving gift-giving demands, holiday shopping, and travel consumption, stimulating retail and restaurant sector performance for the month. Nevertheless, the restaurant and hotel sector continues to be affected by labor shortages, inconsistent service quality, and an expanding tourism deficit. ...Read more |
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| Diversifying Industrial Collaboration in a Shifting Global Landscape |
| With Trump's anticipated return, concerns persist over his erratic policy moves, yet excessive pessimism is unwarranted. A balanced, cautiously optimistic approach—supported by robust contingency plans—lays a solid foundation for progress. During his first term, Taiwan's economy outperformed many nations and surpassed previous benchmarks, with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy aligning with our recommendations. Now, as Trump returns, the global landscape is more challenging than eight years ago, demanding heightened vigilance and strategic recalibration. Several nations continue enforcing inequitable policies and often backtrack on commitments, signaling a decline in reform capacity and rising resistance to liberalization. Despite these obstacles, Taiwan has consistently demonstrated resilience against isolation and marginalization, while new diversification opportunities may emerge amid deteriorating global conditions. Taiwan’s competitive advantage lies in its adaptability amid adversity. Instead of remaining a mere production hub, Taiwan must evolve into a global coordinator of resources and technology, fostering niche industries, strengthening domestic sectors, and enhancing cultural exports. Emphasizing trust, innovation, resource mobility, and international cooperation is key to sustaining long-term economic stability. This comprehensive strategy is designed to address both immediate challenges and structural shifts in the global economy, ensuring that Taiwan remains competitive and resilient amid shifting dynamics. Our approach emphasizes trust, innovation, and international collaboration as the pillars for sustainable growth and enduring economic stability. These measures will fortify Taiwan’s future. (For more, please see the current monthly journal) |
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Taiwan Economic Research Monthly
Reset, Recharge, Rebrand: Advancing SME Development via Brand-Centered Innovation |
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According to the "White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises in Taiwan, 2024," Taiwan's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have exceeded 1.674 million in number, underscoring their crucial role as the foundation of Taiwan's economy. However, facing highly uncertain global political and economic dynamics, evolving market competition, and rapidly changing customer demands, SMEs must strengthen their competitive advantages while confronting limited resources, talent, and skills. Taiwan's SMEs can initiate strategic integration by establishing brand value as their core objective, linking digital transformation and ESG initiatives to accelerate new growth momentum. This month's featured articles encompass four sections: Enterprise, Industry, Value, and Policy. It examines how Taiwan's SMEs can achieve diversified transformation through brand-centric approaches. The enterprise section analyzes SMEs' brand, digital, and ESG transformation strategies, providing frameworks for brand development and digital empowerment. The industry section studies international experiences from Japan, Switzerland, and New Zealand, alongside Taiwan's bicycle, machine tool, and medical device industries. The value section introduces brand strength diagnostic tools, while the policy section shares government resources and transformation case studies for SME reference.
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