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Balancing prosperity: Pursuing improved global economic performance amidst geopolitical turmoil and commodity price swings
TIER forecast: Taiwan’s 2024 annual GDP growth rate will stand at 3.29%, 0.14 percentage points higher than previous forecast |
| Due to continued strength in US employment and consumer spending, the IMF has significantly upgraded its forecast for US economic growth in 2024. Additionally, global demand has notably improved, contributing to a turnaround in manufacturing performance. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indicator (PMI) for the US, China, Japan, and ASEAN countries have all shown upward trends in recent months, indicating a global manufacturing outlook rebound. However, geopolitical turmoil has continued to impact international raw material prices, warranting attention. Regarding the Taiwanese economy, the ongoing robust opportunities in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), coupled with a general revival in traditional manufacturing exports and production, have led to increases in Taiwan’s manufacturing exports, production index, and export orders compared to the previous month. Consequently, the proportion of manufacturers in Taiwan optimistic about the current month’s economic performance has notably increased compared to the previous month. The service industry has benefited from the active trading in the Taiwanese stock market, leading to significant increases in sales of dividend policies. This has contributed to optimism among financial-related service industries regarding the current month’s economic performance. Although facing challenges of rising costs, the construction industry continues to benefit from reconstruction and public works projects, as well as the economic recovery and resurgence in manufacturing. This has driven demand for residential and commercial real estate for self-use in the short term, thus maintaining a certain level of confidence in Taiwan’s housing market. Based on these developments, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) forecasts that Taiwan’s GDP growth rate will reach 3.29% in 2024, marking a positive adjustment of 0.14 percentage points from its previous forecast in January this year. ...Read more |
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| Taiwan chamber of commerce opens in India |
| The Taiwan Chamber of Commerce in India was established on 22nd April, 2024 as a platform for Taiwanese entrepreneurs to invest in India. Taiwan Chamber of Commerce in Delhi President Ho Chun-hsin has been chosen to head the new business organization, CNA reported. In a speech, Ho said the chamber would provide information about daily life and investment for Taiwanese entrepreneurs in India or those interested in entering the Indian market. Together, the chamber and investors will expand business networks and leverage the collective strength of Taiwanese entrepreneurs to showcase Taiwan's soft power, he said. Ho added that it was never too late to invest in India. Taiwan Representative to India Baushuan Ger said there are currently 250 Taiwanese companies investing in India. Taiwanese investment in India totals approximately US$4.6 billion (NT$150.2 billion), Ger said. He hoped the new chamber of commerce could become a platform for information exchange, allowing more Taiwanese businesses to find development prospects in India. There are four Taiwanese chambers of commerce in India, located in Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Chennai. The new organization comes as the Taiwan-India labor cooperation agreement is under review in the Legislative Yuan. The deal is set to bring in Indian migrant laborers to help ease the impact of Taiwan’s aging population and declining birth rate on the country’s workforce. The exact number of Indian workers has yet to be agreed upon (Source: Taiwan News). |
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Taiwan Economic Research Monthly
Strategic and Tactical Issues in U.S.-China Competition |
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Stephen S. Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, wrote that since the onset of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, it has been a struggle between U.S. tactics and China’s strategy. He argues that tactics alone are insufficient to compensate for deficiencies in strategic thinking, and therefore, he believes that the Washington establishment should pay more attention to strategic issues (S. S. Roach, 2023). While perceptions of the differences between tactics and strategy may vary, generally, tactics refer to methods of achieving short-term, localized victories, while strategy involves principles guiding and coordinating various tactics based on long-term and overall goals and considerations. One potential danger of focusing on tactics and lacking strategic thinking is the risk of winning a battle but losing the war. The United States may need to improve its strategic thinking and planning in its trade disputes with China, but this does not imply that China, with its more strategic approach, necessarily has an advantage and doesn’t need to improve its practices. In essence, Roach is highlighting the importance of strategic thinking over mere tactical maneuvers in navigating complex geopolitical and economic dynamics, emphasizing the need for a long-term perspective and cohesive planning to achieve sustainable success in competitive environments.
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