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Trump-Era trade policies and fiscal measures escalate economic uncertainty
Divergent Economic Perspectives: Manufacturing optimism contrasts with service sector conservatism |
The global economic landscape remains overshadowed by policy uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade approaches, triggering an escalation of protectionist sentiments. Recent monetary authorities in the United States and Europe have systematically downgraded economic growth forecasts while simultaneously adjusting inflation expectations, signaling persistent downside risks to the global economic trajectory.
In the manufacturing sector, following the post-Lunar New Year resumption of business operations, February witnessed a notable rebound in export volumes and external orders, rendering manufacturers' economic outlook for the current month more optimistic compared to the previous period. Despite heightened uncertainties from ongoing trade policies that potentially impact global economic growth and inflationary pressures—which could influence central banks' monetary policy adjustments—domestic semiconductor advanced process technologies and information and communication supply chain demands remain robust. Consequently, electronics and machinery industries maintain a favorable economic outlook for the next 6 months.
The service sector experiences challenges post-Lunar New Year festivities, with reduced consumer spending and dining-out demands negatively impacting the retail, restaurant, and hotel sectors' current month's economic outlook. Moreover, escalating policy uncertainties have eroded business and consumer investment confidence, prompting financial service providers to adopt more conservative or pessimistic perspectives in both the current month and the next 6 months' comparative assessments. ...Read more |
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| Comparing U.S., China, and European Strategies Toward a New Trade Order |
| Post-WWII international trade has been defined by liberalization and globalization. As this system faces mounting challenges, various approaches to reforming global trade governance have emerged. However, some proposed remedies risk further destabilization, while others remain rhetorically hollow or could yield authoritarian structures dominated by a single power. The European Union's methodologies offer potentially more viable pathways to improving international trade frameworks. The United States must exercise caution to avoid collateral damage in its reform efforts. More aggressive interventions may miss intended targets while triggering competitive policy distortions among nations. China's multilateralism advocacy lacks substantive implementation strategies, with its practices frequently contradicting stated principles. Despite benefiting significantly from WTO structures and special accommodations, Beijing routinely contravenes established norms. China's historical patterns suggest it envisions an authoritarian order under its unilateral direction rather than genuine multilateralism based on collective international consensus. The European Union demonstrates greater potential for success through its incremental approach. The EU's multinational composition necessitates internal viability and consensus before external application, allowing it to equitably require market entrants to meet identical standards, thus gradually globalizing EU-designed frameworks. The United States, European Union, and liberal democracies could collaboratively advance a fair and open order using this methodology, engaging Japan, Britain, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, and New Zealand in systematic deliberations concerning reasonable international trade parameters that accommodate nations of diverse scales and characteristics—representing the most promising pathway toward progressive improvement of the global trade architecture. (For more, please see the current monthly journal) |
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Taiwan Economic Research Monthly
The Dawn of Taiwan's Carbon Pricing Era - Businesses Embarking on the Road to Sustainable Carbon Reduction |
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Facing global climate change challenges, carbon reduction is crucial for both environmental protection and supply chain competitiveness. As countries implement circular economies, AI, and energy-efficient technologies for net-zero goals, Taiwan's government has established carbon trading mechanisms and fee policies to encourage green transformation. Yet many SMEs remain passive, with research showing 90% haven't adopted ESG practices, potentially weakening their sustainability and competitive position. Many businesses believe their low emissions exempt them from carbon fees, delaying reduction efforts. However, global supply chains increasingly demand stringent carbon standards, with large corporations integrating carbon management into procurement criteria. Non-compliant SMEs risk supply chain exclusion. As consumers prioritize sustainability, corporate image is increasingly tied to ESG performance, with carbon reduction enhancing market trust and product value. SMEs can approach carbon reduction by: using TIER's TEST self-assessment tool to evaluate environmental, social, and governance practices; implementing internal carbon pricing to assess investment benefits; and monitoring voluntary carbon markets to offset emissions through credit purchases. These strategies help businesses navigate the carbon economy while contributing to sustainable development.
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