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Inflation challenges intensify uncertainty and hinder global GDP growth
Three composite indicators issued by TIER decline in unison |
| The fear of inflation is coming, threatening and very likely weakening the global economic recovery with a vengeance. Commodity prices have been surging because of 3 reasons: first, unprecedented loosing monetary operations conducted by world major central banks, such as the Fed and ECB; second, worldwide port congestions that slowdown the process of goods distribution; and third, ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that amplifies inflation risks. As a result, major forecasting agencies adjust their forecasts for this year’s global GDP growth downward. The manufacturing, service and construction composite indicators issued by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) all declined in February 2022 at the same time. However, Taiwan’s economic performance in external markets has so far remained solid. Taiwan’s exports in February 2022 increased significantly by 34.75% compared with the same month of 2021, the consecutive twelve-month in double digit growth, as a result of a strong market demand for ICT parts and components and other merchandises in addition to much lower base effect due to the COVID-19 impacts. Regarding imports, Taiwan’s imports in February 2022 increased by 35.32% compared with imports in February of 2021, also the consecutive twelve-month in double digit growth; lower base effect would also be the main cause. Taiwan’s exports and imports in January and February 2022 gave a trade surplus as at US$ 10.82 billion or increase by 2.91% year-on-year due to base effect. As the export order have continued such momentum, it is also expected that Taiwan’s exports will maintain strong in at least the first half of 2022. ...Read more |
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| Output beats forecasts for 25th month |
| Industrial production in Taiwan last month (February 2022) expanded by a better-than-expected 10 percent year-on-year, thanks to easing component shortages and continued capacity expansion by semiconductor companies in response to robust demand. The industrial production index last month climbed for a 25 consecutive month to 117.49, the highest figure for February on record following the second-longest upcycle. The growth momentum is expected to extend into this month, with the manufacturing sector likely to see its best March performance ever, Department of Statistics Deputy Director-General Huang Wei-jie said. “The first quarter is usually a slow season, but seasonal weakness has barely been felt by local manufacturers this year,” Huang said. “It is likely that the first quarter might be the strongest, only coming after last year’s third and fourth quarters.” Huang attributed last month’s stronger-than-expected manufacturing output to robust demand for electronic components (Source: Taipei Times). |
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Taiwan Economic Research Monthly
Aotearoa Plan of Action and Development Trend of APEC |
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APEC’s organizational design conforms to the significant differences in Asia-Pacific economies’ development. With the influence of the evolution of regional and international situations, the “Bogor Goals” in 1994 and the “Osaka Action Agenda” in 1995 were born out of the APEC mechanism and became the main organizational goals and implementation plans before 2020. In 2020, since the original deadline for the Bogor Goals expired, even though APEC's own task force and its think tank, the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), both considered that the Bogor Goals as still unfinished, the international situations such as the development of the digital economy, the natural disasters caused by climate change, and even the unexpected outbreak of COVID-19; those impacts are significant and far-reaching, so APEC has launched new goals and implementation plans, namely the “Putrajaya Vision 2040” in 2020 and the “Aotearoa Plan of Action” in 2021, in respond to regional dynamic changes and impacts.
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