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Markets brace for heightened economic uncertainty with incoming White House Administration
Tech sector resilient amid traditional industry weakness; policy risks weigh on manufacturing |
Global economic growth remains moderate, with manufacturing recovery still constrained. Monetary policy easing across major economies is expected to stimulate trade momentum. The prospect of Trump's return to presidency has elevated market uncertainties, with significant implications for global geopolitical and economic dynamics.
In domestic production, despite persistent demand for emerging technology applications, traditional industries continue to show weak recovery momentum, with weak petrochemical exports. This has led manufacturers to express a slightly more pessimistic view of the current month's economic conditions compared to the previous month's survey. It is anticipated that Trump's presidency could trigger a new wave of U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially impacting Chinese manufacturing and domestic supply chain demand. The chemicals and chemical products sectors have downgraded their six-month economic outlook. In the service sector, despite typhoon-related disruptions, the launch of department store anniversary sales campaigns, coupled with stable stock market performance in October, has contributed to positive economic outlooks in the retail and securities sectors.
Construction sector's Composite Indicators exhibited an upward trend, primarily driven by optimistic six-month projections stemming from enhanced public infrastructure allocations and ongoing high-tech facility expansions. However, the real estate sector has experienced declining October transaction volumes and subdued market demand due to expanded central bank credit controls, stricter mortgage approval processes, and rising interest rates. Market demand is expected to recover only after lending conditions are relaxed. ...Read more |
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| Developing Diversified National Investment Institutions and Mechanisms |
| Senior advisers to current President Biden are exploring the establishment of a national sovereign wealth fund to facilitate U.S. investments in critical areas of technology, energy, and supply chains to enhance national security. Establishing sovereign funds or government participation in strategic investments has gained bipartisan support and may become a global trend. While nations were previously hesitant to involve the government in industrial investments, global economic ideology has shifted from laissez-faire towards emphasizing national security, fair competition, and sustainable development, prompting countries to strengthen state support for industrial investment with appropriate safeguards. Government involvement in industrial investment offers seven key benefits: enhanced innovation and investment through state participation, critical industry development, business and market stabilization, balance against foreign policy-driven investments, trade surplus reduction with improved income distribution, and state investment management opportunities. Taiwan possesses abundant capital but has insufficiently directed funds into appropriate domestic investments. The tendency to encourage capital outflow has led to persistent trade surpluses, while financial institutions and citizens face exchange rate risks in foreign assets. This situation requires review and improvement. Government-owned or controlled assets can be utilized simultaneously through various methods and institutions. A cross-party consensus mechanism can be established to minimize political interference, where potentially controversial investment proposals are discussed by party representatives and experts before proceeding. This multi-channel, multi-objective approach can be implemented by adjusting existing mechanisms or gradually establishing new institutions and mechanisms for specific objectives, better meeting practical needs while minimizing controversy and risk.(For more, please see the current monthly journal) |
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Taiwan Economic Research Monthly
Advancing Net-Zero Transition Through CCS Technology and CFEC System |
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To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, net-zero emissions by 2050 have become a global target. As renewable energy costs decrease, this drives the low-carbon transition in energy markets. However, industries like power, steel, petrochemicals, and cement cannot achieve net-zero transition through renewable energy alone. Both IEA and IPCC propose Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology as a solution. Countries have introduced various CCS policies and subsidies to accelerate net-zero goals. In regulation, many nations have established long-term carbon storage monitoring frameworks ensuring safe CCS implementation. Yet, in social communication strategy, effectively conveying benefits and safety to the public remains a major challenge. This month's featured articles examine CCS developments in policy, technology, regulation, and commerce. They promote CCS technology and industrial ecosystem growth through international cases, covering international CCS policy dynamics, hub project business models, CCS integration in thermal power plants, and analyzing how storage monitoring frameworks and social communication strategies can advance CCS adoption. Additionally, implementing CFEC to grant carbon-free power benefits to thermal plants enhances commercial viability and market appeal, fostering an industrial ecosystem toward net-zero grid development. The articles provide multiple perspectives on global CCS development across sectors, from policy and technical implementation to commercial applications, exploring possibilities for domestic energy-intensive industries through international experience.
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