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The global recovery will go on in spite of COVID variant Omicron
TIER forecasts Taiwan’s annual GDP growth rate at 4.10% in 2022 |
| In January 2022, many well recognized international organizations issued their most recent forecasts for this year’s global GDP growth. The United Nation predicted that the world economy will grow by 4.0% in 2022. In addition, IHS Markit, Economist Intelligence Unit, and the World Bank believed that the global GDP growth would be standing at 4.2%, 4.0%, and 4.1% respectively for this year. Given the relatively high base effect of 2021, their economic forecasts can be considered as optimistic and the coming business conditions can be deemed as promising in spite of the potential impacts and threat caused by Omicron, as such COVID variant is believed by scientists as less severe compared with Delta. The Taiwan Institute od Economic Research (TIER) also issued its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth in 2022 as at 4.10% with respect to Taiwan’s solid performance in both the external and internal market demands. Taiwan’s exports in December 2021 increased significantly by 23.43% compared with the same month of 2020, the consecutive ten-month in double digit growth, as a result of a strong market demand for ICT parts and components and other merchandises in addition to much lower base effect due to the COVID-19 impacts. Regarding imports, Taiwan’s imports in December 2021 increased by 28.09% compared with imports in December of 2020, also the consecutive ten-month in double digit growth; lower base effect would also be the main cause. On the cumulative basis, Taiwan’s exports and imports during the entire year of 2021 gave a trade surplus as at US$ 65.42 billion or increase by 10.92% year-on-year. As the export order have continued such momentum, it is also expected that Taiwan’s exports will maintain solid in 2022. In addition to exports, private consumption is believed to be another reliable engine driving the GDP growth thanks to increased real income as a result. ...Read more |
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| NDC responds to AmCham Taiwan business climate survey |
| The government is working to bring Taiwan’s regulatory and business environment more in line with international standards and join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, according to the Cabinet-level National Development Council on Jan. 19. The NDC’s remarks follow the release of the 2022 Business Climate Survey earlier the same day by the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan. Conducted between Dec. 1, 2021 and Jan. 7, 2022, the survey involves 178 AmCham members and serves as reference for the Taiwan government in setting economic policy directions. According to the survey, the voting members have deep roots in Taiwan, with over two-thirds of respondents working for firms that have been operating in the country for more than two decades. About 87 percent are confident about Taiwan’s economic outlook for the next twelve months. The survey found that a record 90 percent expressed optimism about revenue growth for the next twelve month, with over 40 percent intending to increase employee headcount. The government is committed to revitalizing the economy, the NDC said. This is evidenced by policies that help Taiwan reach economic growth of 4.25 to 4.6 percent this year such as increasing pay in the public sector, as well as a roadmap for the country’s efforts to attain net-zero emissions, the council added. Established in 1951 with more than 1,000 members from 500-plus companies, AmCham is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to promoting the interests of American and international businesses in Taiwan (Source: Taiwan Today). |
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Taiwan Economic Research Monthly
The hidden worries of "inflation" that cannot be underestimated |
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The hidden worries of high inflation are increasing day by day, and inflation has become the first challenge facing the economy in 2022. There are many reasons for the current inflationary pressure. First, short-term factors are mainly caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19, including "commodity shortages" and "low base effect". The rapid freezing has caused the price base period to be very low in 2020, and the control of production lines, supply chains and transportation is more directly stagnant in the transaction and supply of commodities. Secondly, international energy and raw material prices have always been the basic factors affecting consumer prices. The economic rebound in 2021 will ignite the momentum of oil prices and energy price increases, coupled with the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In addition, extreme weather in 2021 will cause poor harvests in major food exporting countries. The global food price index released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has once again rewritten a new ten-year high. The level of energy and raw material prices is closely related to economic growth, geopolitics, weather, climate change, etc., and will continue to influence price fluctuations in various countries in the future.
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