The Taiwanese Economy in November 2025

Policy Decoupling Monetary policies among major central banks have diverged significantly. The Federal Reserve extended its easing cycle with bond purchases, contrasting with the ECB's hold, the BOJ's rate hike, and the PBOC's accommodative stance. This decoupling risks disrupting global capital flows and heightening market volatility.
Domestically, strong AI, high-performance computing, and cloud services demand sustained customer procurement momentum. Though non-AI sectors offset some growth due to weak demand and competition, overall momentum exceeded the prior month, with manufacturing sentiment improving for both current and six-month outlooks. In services, securities firms viewed current conditions favorably despite November's stock market pullback, benefiting from higher trading volumes and new Taiwan Innovation Board (TIB) listings. Wholesale businesses remained optimistic about current and six-month prospects, supported by recovering procurement, currency depreciation, and rising ICT exports.
Construction maintained growth momentum for both horizons as the public sector accelerated infrastructure to meet its 95% annual target. Major projects including the Tucheng-Shulin MRT elevated section and Eastern Loop Line will commence in 2026, sustaining engineering demand. High-tech facility projects progressed steadily, generating consistent plant construction and electrical engineering demand. In real estate, stronger fourth-quarter buying lifted existing home sales modestly, though November transactions fell 6.3% month-over-month due to limited new completions. The central bank's recent decisions resemble targeted measures rather than broad liberalization. Owner-occupiers remain the primary support, but investors and multi-property owners face financing cost and lending constraints. With persistent buyer-seller price gaps, the housing market will likely remain in low-level consolidation.
Our survey and model calculations show November 2025 composite indicators rose across manufacturing, services, and construction, with consecutive improvements indicating strengthening business confidence.
In external trade, November performance remained strong, with exports accelerating from 49.18% in October to 55.98% and imports expanding from 14.53% to 44.95%. Export growth shows structural concentration in AI-related ICT and electronics, while non-AI sectors show modest growth or await recovery. Imports rose on AI supply chain internationalization and export expansion, driving higher capital equipment purchases. Cumulative January-November 2025 exports grew 34.05% year-over-year, imports rose 23.45%, producing a $137.705 billion trade surplus, up 84.89%.
In production, sustained AI, high-performance computing, and cloud data services demand supported steady ICT and electronics growth, though some traditional industries cut production due to competition and weak demand. November's manufacturing production index reached 120.84, up 4.46% month-over-month and 17.35% year-over-year.
In consumption, November retail sales totaled NT$445.9 billion, up 1.41% year-over-year, or 3.32% excluding automotive. Anniversary sales, Singles' Day, and Black Friday promotions combined with government cash distribution incentives stimulated spending. Cumulative January-November sales fell 0.32% year-over-year. November food service revenue reached NT$88.4 billion, up 2.77% year-over-year, with government cash distribution promotions supporting growth. Cumulative January-November food service revenue rose 3.21% year-over-year.
On prices, high base effects from last year's Typhoons Kong-rey and Trami and wider November vegetable price declines moderate overall food inflation. Cumulative January-November 2025 CPI rose 1.69% year-over-year, while PPI fell 1.79%.
In labor markets, November 2025 unemployment reached 3.33%, down 0.03 percentage points from both prior month and year-ago levels. January-November average unemployment was 3.35%, down 0.04 percentage points year-over-year. Regarding work hour reductions, 9,153 workers were on reduced schedules at end-November 2025, with metal and machinery industries most affected at 6,404 workers, representing 70.0% of the total.
In financial markets, November's weighted average lending rate for new loans from the five major banks (Bank of Taiwan, Land Bank, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, Hua Nan Bank, and First Bank) was 2.119%, down 0.068 percentage points from October's 2.187%. In equities, rising concerns about AI stock speculation and bubbles, combined with profit-taking, weakened AI large-cap performance. The Taiwan Weighted Index closed at 27,626.48 points at end-November, down 2.15% from end-October, with average daily turnover of NT$571.521 billion. In foreign exchange, heightened AI bubble concerns prompted substantial foreign net selling and capital outflows, pressuring the New Taiwan dollar to NT$31.408 per US dollar at end-November, down 2.10%.

Business Survey Outcomes

Manufacturing firms perceiving better-than-expected November business reached 24.0%, up 6.1 percentage points from October's 17.9%. Those perceiving worsening conditions fell to 23.1%, down 6.7 percentage points from 29.8% prior month. Firms perceiving constant conditions reached 52.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from 52.3% prior month.
For six-month outlook, manufacturers anticipating improvement reached 23.1%, up 3.7 percentage points from October's 19.4%. Those foreseeing deterioration fell to 23.7%, down 6.7 percentage points from 30.4% prior month. Firms expecting constant conditions reached 53.2%, up 3.0 percentage points from 50.2% prior month.
The TIER Manufacturing Composite Indicator for November 2025 reached 94.42 points, up 2.39 points from October's 92.03, extending gains for five consecutive months. The TIER Service Sector Composite Indicator reached 91.18 points, up 3.09 points from the revised October figure of 88.09, marking a second consecutive increase. The TIER Construction Sector Composite Indicator reached 101.66 points, up 1.12 points from 100.54 prior month, extending gains for six consecutive months.

Analyses and Outlook of Industries

Following are manufacturers' sentiments that are industry-specific in the monthly TIER surveys:

● Manufacturers’ sentiments that have been in decline in the November survey and are expected to deteriorate over the next six months include:
Cutlery and Tools Manufacturing, Bicycles Manufacturing, Bicycles Parts Manufacturing.
　
● Manufacturers’ sentiments that have been in decline in the November survey, but are expected to improve over the next six months include:
Frozen Food Manufacturing, Soft Drink Manufacturing, Motorcycles Manufacturing, Precision Instruments Manufacturing, Banks.
　
● Manufacturers’ sentiments that have been in decline in the November survey and are expected to remain sluggish over the next six months include:
Printing, Porcelain and Ceramic Products Manufacturing, Electrical Appliances and Housewares Manufacturing, Audio and Video Electronic Products Manufacturing, Transport Equipment Manufacturing and Repairing, Motor Vehicles Manufacturing, Motorcycles Parts Manufacturing.
　
● Manufacturers surveyed who felt the November outlook was the same as the previous month, but the outlook is expected to exacerbate over the next six months include:
Industrial Chemicals, Petrochemicals Manufacturing, Plastics and Rubber Raw Materials.
　
● Manufacturers surveyed who felt the November outlook was the same as the previous month, but the outlook is expected to improve over the next six months include:
Food, Edible Oil Manufacturing, Flour Milling and Grain Husking, Leather, Fur and Allied Product Manufacturing, Metal Structure and Architectural Components Manufacturing, Electronic Machinery, Electronic Parts and Components Manufacturing, Construction, Retail Sales.
　
● Manufacturers surveyed who felt the November outlook was the same as the previous month and the trend is expected to continue for the next six months include:
Manufacturing, Slaughtering, Prepared Animal Feeds Manufacturing, Yarn Spinning Mills, Paper Manufacturing, Man-made Fibers Manufacturing, Rubber Products Manufacturing, Plastic Products Manufacturing, Non-metallic Mineral Products Manufacturing, Glass and Glass Products Manufacturing, Cement and Cement Products Manufacturing, Iron and Steel Basic Industries, Fabricated Metal Products Manufacturing, Metal Dies, Screw, Nut Manufacturing, Electrical Machinery, Electric Wires and Cables Manufacturing, Communications Equipment and Apparatus Manufacturing, Motor Parts Manufacturing, Real Estate Investment, Restaurants and Hotels, Insurance, Transportation and Storage.
　
● Manufacturers’ sentiments that have improved in the November survey and is expected to deteriorate over the next six months include:
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing, Education and Entertainment Articles Manufacturing.
　
● Manufacturers’ sentiments that have improved in the November survey and is expected to remain upbeat over the next six months include:
Apparel, Clothing Accessories and Other Textile Product Manufacturing, Electrical Machinery, Supplies Manufacturing and Repairing, Basic Civil Structure Construction, Wholesale.
　
● Manufacturers’ sentiments that have improved in the November survey and the trend is expected to continue for the next six months include:
Textiles Mills, Fabric Mills, Wood and Bamboo Products Manufacturing, Chemical Products Manufacturing, Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing and Repairing, Industrial Machinery, Data Storage Media Units Manufacturing and Reproducing, Securities, Telecommunication Services.